Forecasts for 2020: which will come true and which won't

What will happen to artificial brains, drones, VR, and other technologies?

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People are always interested in what awaits them in the future. This curiosity drives scientific research and the development of technology, reflected in culture and politics. We tell how scientists, entrepreneurs, writers, futurologists see 2020, and what are the chances of these Forecasts for 2020.

Forecast 1: Implementation of the 5G standard

The technology is being introduced gradually, with the introduction of suitable network equipment and consumer devices. The first modem that meets the standard was introduced in August 2018

The effects of 5G on living organisms are not fully understood. The world standard allows such a level of radiofrequency safety that the irradiated part of the body is heated by no more than 0.3 ° C. In Switzerland, some cantons were even planning to introduce a moratorium on the implementation of the standard because of concerns of residents.

Will the forecast come true by 2020?

Yes

Forecast 2: The Internet of things will create a unified system of devices

The growth of devices connected to IoT will lead to huge costs for data transfer, maintenance, management. The question of protecting devices from virtual and physical attacks remains open. Most of the IoT devices that work today are vulnerable – they have externally accessible management interfaces and default passwords. And there are more and more literate users, and they can reveal insufficient privacy.

The development of IoT contributes to an increase in the number of electronic devices, and hence waste. According to UN estimates, about 50 million tons of electronic and electrical waste is dumped annually in the world, only 20% are officially disposed of. Losses amount to $ 62.5 billion per year, by 2050 the amount could be three times higher.

Will the forecast come true by 2020?

Partially. Already now we can turn on the kettle using a Wi-Fi outlet and watch the house via video in our absence.

Forecast 3: AR / VR will replace the real world

For consumers, immersion in virtual reality is fraught with physical danger. This became apparent after the release of the game Pokémon Go, which has become super-popular. According to the authors of JAMA internal medicine, in 10 days the game caused 14 accidents in the United States.

The impact of AR and VR on children’s health is mixed. The University of Leeds (UK) conducted a study in which 20 children aged 8-12 took part. They spent 20 minutes wearing virtual reality helmets and then passed three tests. In two children, stereopsis (perception of depth) worsened, and in one child balance stability decreased.

Another concern is that VR headsets get consumer data for targeted advertising. Obtaining large amounts of information can contribute to the violation of rights, discrimination or mass surveillance.

Will the forecast come true by 2020?

No. AR / VR technology is used, but not yet universally.

Forecast 4: Blockchain will be used for any Internet operations

At the moment, the technology does not have a governing body and a common concept. According to the forecast of the rating agency Moody’s, blockchain standards may appear in 2021. This will help save time and costs with fast data availability.

When creating a virtual currency, many resources are used. Over a year of mining a currency such as Bitcoin, more than 73 TWh are consumed, which is comparable to Austria’s electricity consumption. Electronic waste reaches 10.22 thousand tons. The biggest problem is the carbon impact – almost $ 35 million tons per year.

Fintech company DTI Algorithmic considers the lack of a governing body, the inconvenient application interface, and associations with the financial pyramid to be disadvantages.

Will the forecast come true by 2020?

No. Blockchain is used by individual enthusiasts.

Forecast 5: Cars will move without drivers

Legally, drones will get the right to ride the streets no earlier than 2023, representatives of J’son & Partners predict. This is due to legal, informational and technological limitations. The most favorable conditions will be created in the USA, China, and Europe.

In the coming years, market players will have to agree on the rules for the “existence” of unmanned vehicles with regulators. According to Article 8 Part 1 of the Geneva Convention, a person must be present at the wheel of a vehicle. It is also necessary to bring to mind the technology of full control when a person is not required at any stage of the movement.

The adoption of laws on drones may delay the facts of victims of self-driving vehicles. In addition, there are concerns that robotic drones designed for military purposes might get out of control and harm people.

Will the forecast come true by 2020?

No. There are many security issues ahead.

Forecast 6: Robots will work instead of people

Machines will lose their jobs from 400 to 800 million people, the network of professional services PWC cites. The first wave of unemployment will begin in the early 2020s. 3% of jobs will be cut due to the algorithmization of routine procedures. At the end of the second decade, robots will expand their scope, they will replace up to 20% of jobs. By the mid-2030s, the third wave of robotics will affect 30% of professions.

But not all robots are equally effective. In Japan, the world’s first hotel, where guests were served by robots, “fired” 243 employees for inefficiency. Cars could not cope with signals from guests and make copies of documents. After numerous complaints, they decided to refuse cars.

Will the forecast come true by 2020?

No. Robots will continue to help people, but will not replace them completely.

Forecast 7: Artificial Intelligence will reach the level of human

Many organizations lack experience and resources to take full advantage of AI. To work with machine learning and deep learning, as a rule, it requires the involvement of teams of experts in the field of AI, large amounts of data, specialized infrastructure and computing power.

It is believed that thinking machines can endanger the existence of all mankind. This point of view was held by scientist Stephen Hawking.

The desire for security should not limit freedom and the right to privacy, as is the case, for example, in China. In Europe, this issue has already been raised.

Since neural networks can create any kind of information, including fake information, this will increase the number of speculations and information attacks.

Futurologist Gerd Leonard is not worried that artificial intelligence will overtake human – emotions are inaccessible to machines, systems are mostly single-tasking, imprisoned for a specific function.

Will the forecast come true by 2020?

No. People use AI as an assistant only in certain areas.

Forecast 8: Editing human genes

Medical experiments involving people violate the currently accepted ethical standards. These are issues of risk of future generations, the role of women, the availability of alternatives, subsequent monitoring of participants, coverage of health insurance and others.

The Chinese University of Shenzhen, where Jiankui He worked, has already declared a gross violation of ethical standards and has suspended the biologist from work.

Will the forecast come true by 2020?

Partially. It is likely that human experiments will be banned.

Forecast 9: Cryopreservation

Cryo-freezing is carried out in the first hours after death, so it is important to draw up a person’s consent in advance. In addition, no one can guarantee recovery after cryogenic freezing.

Will the forecast come true by 2020?

No

Forecast 9: The creation of the brain in artificial conditions

31,000 neurons are just about 0.15% of the brain. Such results criticize the activities of scientists.

Will the forecast come true by 2020?

No. The current pace of work does not allow us to talk about the execution of the forecast.

Forecast 10: The use of new materials, 3D printing

With the growth of 3D printing, the economy may collapse by a quarter if it does not have time to prepare for change. Boeing and Airbus have already replaced some of the parts with printed ones and reduced the cost of passenger liners by $ 3 million

The growth of additive technologies can lead to a global economic breakdown – the return of global industrial giants to their homeland from China and other countries.

But with the introduction of 3D-printers will not immediately and completely replace traditional production technologies, Deloitte analysts are sure. This is still too much of a challenge.

Will the forecast come true by 2020?

Yes

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